Probabilistic surrogate modeling of offshore wind-turbine loads with chained Gaussian processes

Heteroscedastic Gaussian process regression, based on the concept of chained Gaussian processes, is used to build surrogates to predict site-specific loads on an offshore wind turbine. Stochasticity in the inflow turbulence and irregular waves results in load responses that are best represented as random variables rather than deterministic values. Moreover, the effect of these stochastic sources on the loads depends strongly on the mean environmental conditions -- for instance, at low mean wind speeds, inflow turbulence produces much less variability in loads than at high wind speeds. Statistically, this is known as heteroscedasticity. Deterministic and most stochastic surrogates do not account for the heteroscedastic noise, giving an incomplete and potentially misleading picture of the structural response. In this paper, we draw on the recent advancements in statistical inference to train a heteroscedastic surrogate model on a noisy database to predict the conditional pdf of the response. The model is informed via 10-minute load statistics of the IEA-10MW-RWT subject to both aero- and hydrodynamic loads, simulated with OpenFAST. Its performance is assessed against the standard Gaussian process regression. The predicted mean is similar in both models, but the heteroscedastic surrogate approximates the large-scale variance of the responses significantly better.Comment: 10 pages. To be published in the IOP Journal of Physics: Conference Series. To be presented at TORQUE 202

Performance of a dual-hormone closed-loop system versus insulin-only closed-loop system in adolescents with type 1 diabetes. A single-blind, randomized, controlled, crossover trial

ObjectiveTo assess the efficacy and safety of a dual-hormone (DH [insulin and glucagon]) closed-loop system compared to a single-hormone (SH [insulin only]) closed-loop system in adolescents with type 1 diabetes.MethodsThis was a 26-hour, two-period, randomized, crossover, inpatient study involving 11 adolescents with type 1 diabetes (nine males [82%], mean ± SD age 14.8 ± 1.4 years, diabetes duration 5.7 ± 2.3 years). Except for the treatment configuration of the DiaCon Artificial Pancreas: DH or SH, experimental visits were identical consisting of: an overnight stay (10:00 pm until 7:30 am), several meals/snacks, and a 45-minute bout of moderate intensity continuous exercise. The primary endpoint was percentage of time spent with sensor glucose values below range (TBR [<3.9 mmol/L]) during closed-loop control over the 26-h period (5:00 pm, day 1 to 7:00 pm, day 2).ResultsOverall, there were no differences between DH and SH for the following glycemic outcomes (median [IQR]): TBR 1.6 [0.0, 2.4] vs. 1.28 [0.16, 3.19]%, p=1.00; time in range (TIR [3.9-10.0 mmol/L]) 68.4 [48.7, 76.8] vs. 75.7 [69.8, 87.1]%, p=0.08; and time above range (TAR [>10.0 mmol/L]) 28.1 [18.1, 49.8] vs. 23.3 [12.3, 27.2]%, p=0.10. Mean ( ± SD) glucose was higher during DH than SH (8.7 ( ± 3.2) vs. 8.1 ( ± 3.0) mmol/L, p<0.001) but coefficient of variation was similar (34.8 ( ± 6.8) vs. 37.3 ( ± 8.6)%, p=0.20). The average amount of rescue carbohydrates was similar between DH and SH (6.8 ( ± 12.3) vs. 9.5 ( ± 15.4) grams/participant/visit, p=0.78). Overnight, TIR was higher, TAR was lower during the SH visit compared to DH. During and after exercise (4:30 pm until 7 pm) the SH configuration produced higher TIR, but similar TAR and TBR compared to the DH configuration.ConclusionsDH and SH performed similarly in adolescents with type 1 diabetes during a 26-hour inpatient monitoring period involving several metabolic challenges including feeding and exercise. However, during the night and around exercise, the SH configuration outperformed DH

Experimental Validation of Aero-Hydro-Servo-Elastic Models of a Scaled Floating Offshore Wind Turbine

Floating offshore wind turbines are complex dynamical systems. The use of numerical models is an essential tool for the prediction of the fatigue life, ultimate loads and controller design. The simultaneous wind and wave loading on a non-stationary foundation with a flexible tower makes the development of numerical models difficult, the validation of these numerical models is a challenging task as the floating offshore wind turbine system is expensive and the testing of these may cause loss of the system. The validation of these numerical models is often made on scaled models of the floating offshore wind turbines, which are tested in scaled environmental conditions. In this study, an experimental validation of two numerical models for a floating offshore wind turbines will be conducted. The scaled model is a 1:35 Froude scaled 5 MW offshore wind turbine mounted on a tension-leg platform. The two numerical models are aero-hydro-servo-elastic models. The numerical models are a theoretical model developed in a MATLAB/Simulink environment by the authors, while the other model is developed in the turbine simulation tool FAST. A comparison between the numerical models and the experimental dynamics shows good agreement. Though some effects such as the periodic loading from rotor show a complexity, which is difficult to capture

Probabilistic surrogate modeling of offshore wind-turbine loads with chained Gaussian processes

Heteroscedastic Gaussian process regression, based on the concept of chained Gaussian processes, is used to build surrogates to predict site-specific loads on an offshore wind turbine. Stochasticity in the inflow turbulence and irregular waves results in load responses that are best represented as random variables rather than deterministic values. Moreover, the effect of these stochastic sources on the loads depends strongly on the mean environmental conditions - for instance, at low mean wind speeds, inflow turbulence produces much less variability in loads than at high wind speeds. Statistically, this is known as heteroscedasticity. Deterministic and most stochastic surrogates do not account for the heteroscedastic noise, giving an incomplete and potentially misleading picture of the structural response. In this paper, we draw on the recent advancements in statistical inference to train a heteroscedastic surrogate model on a noisy database to predict the conditional pdf of the response. The model is informed via 10-minute load statistics of the IEA-10MW-RWT subject to both aero- and hydrodynamic loads, simulated with OpenFAST. Its performance is assessed against the standard Gaussian process regression. The predicted mean is similar in both models, but the heteroscedastic surrogate approximates the large-scale variance of the responses significantly better.Wind EnergyAerodynamic